Japanese media article: “The Second World War issue” makes the US anxious

2022-05-24 0 By

On February 16, Sankei Shimbun published an article titled “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may trigger A Conflict across the Taiwan Strait”. The article was written by Harson Institute researcher Shigeru Murano.The Biden administration has been in office for more than a year, during which it has reviewed various strategies and is expected to release strategic documents such as the National Security Strategy Report, the National Defense Strategy Report and the Nuclear Posture Review soon.The Interim Guidance on National Security Strategy released by the White House last March identified China as “the only competitor likely to mount a sustained challenge to the international system”.Even under the Trump administration, Both China and Russia were mentioned side by side, but under Biden, Russia has been seen as a country that will be in “sustained decline” for a long time.The trend is largely “correct”, but the explicit designation of “Russia as a secondary [adversary]” in the context of a Russian attack on Ukraine is worrying, and the documentation is taking longer than expected.According to the National Defense Strategy Report released by the Trump administration in 2018, it is very difficult for the United States to simultaneously engage in a war with China and Russia. Based on such judgment, the United States abandoned the “two-front strategy” and changed the indicators that determine the composition of combat power, choosing to prioritize the elimination of one threat while responding to the other with sustained deterrence.As a result, the so-called “Second World War problem” has emerged.In the event of a war with either China or Russia, the U.S. military would have to respond by pooling combat power from around the world, and in the resulting power vacuum there is a risk that another major power will try to change the status quo.This problem is now becoming a reality.If Russia were to attack Ukraine, the US military would be tied up and unable to deploy enough troops in the so-called indo-Pacific region, thus weakening its ability to respond to the situation across the Taiwan Strait.There is a view among American strategists that the United States should not get deeply involved in Ukraine, but rather prepare for China in advance.On the other hand, how the United States responds to attempts to change the status quo in different regions amounts to a precedent that has global implications.This is an extremely difficult problem and there is no quick solution.Source: Reference Information Network