2022 pig market: “break 7 into 8” when to wait?What are the two major limiting factors to pay attention to?
One, pig recovery situation domestic pigs by the African swine fever, domestic pig production capacity has also accelerated the recovery speed, in order to reach the normal level in previous years, the state has also introduced relevant policies, in the multiple positive factors to promote, in June last year, breeding sow stock also reached 45.64 million.Under the situation of rapid reduction of production capacity at the breeding end, the number of sows was 43.29 million at the end of the year, and the breeding structure was gradually optimized. After the middle of October, the price of live pigs also rose, and the decrease of production capacity gradually slowed down.Second, the live pig market how to close to the year of the tiger lunar New Year, pork prices without market consumption in prices, and found some prices, below RMB 7, below market price has dropped below the cost line pigs, breeding end pressure also increased gradually, from the current perspective, the Spring Festival market hog prices presented certain sideways higher momentum,After the festival, there are many negative factors, and the pig price is also a decline risk. “breaking 7 into 8” has become the long-expected wish of farmers. On the whole, there are still some risks in the pig breeding end.According to the latest market data, the national average market price of pigs is 6.89 yuan per catty, pigs have fallen to less than 7 yuan, from the domestic market, the northern market has entered a certain stalemate stage, the market is basically stable.The southern market, hog prices fell.The price in northeast China is 6.25 yuan per catty, while the price in southwest China and northwest China has been hovering at a low point.Xinjiang pig price is 5.65 yuan per catty.Pig prices fell to the bottom, the southern market is also relatively depressed, the price of jiangsu and Zhejiang areas in 7.55 yuan per catty, south China and Guangdong pig prices have dropped to 7 yuan per catty, Sichuan and Chongqing pig prices are less than 7 yuan.On the whole, the volatility of pig price is weak, and the market in the north and south shows a market situation of “falling in the south and falling in the north”. As the Spring Festival is coming to an end, the rise of pig price also faces some resistance. Whether the pig price can “break 8”, the pig price may fall below 7 yuan per catty.Three, two restrictions, the subsequent pig price can usher in a turnaround?1, pork consumption limit from the point of market, market consumption between Spring Festival and the Dragon Boat Festival pigs may at rock bottom, due to the poor pork consumption overall situation, slaughtering enterprises ious shipment quantity is less, the pork prices are low, as people consumption habits change, many consumers of meat consumption in other meat, such as chicken, beef and mutton,However, some areas in China are still under the epidemic situation, which further increases the restrictions on market consumption.2, breeding costs and stock limits The current pig market is gradually increasing, the market price is more than expected, at the same time, the market feed costs increase, farmers actively market, the overall supply chain is crowded, and the current sow stock is relatively high, at a high level.In the case of capacity gradually optimized, the sow is expected in the first half of the market in the current situation of “supply exceeds demand is difficult to reverse, the trend of pig prices have continued to decline, the lowest price is likely to continue in 4 to 5 months, the farmers also positively in the price of emotions, slaughtering enterprises ious loss also increases gradually, perhaps to hog prices present a certain price,There is also a risk that the price of pigs will fall below 6 yuan.Comprehensive the above analysis, the price of pig appears during the first half of a certain downward trend, the subsequent must be depressed can bring certain plans to market breeding end, part of farmers has been farmed prices, farmers fill column mood is low, but after entering into the third quarter may be because the reduction in the number of breeding of pigs will appear a certain price rebound.Mid-Autumn festival and National Day period will promote the market price rise, pig prices will also be strong retrograde, with the market consumption of the peak season, pig prices may usher in “tiger tiger alive”!