Policy is effective, key cities new house transaction increased by nearly 50%!Each camp housing enterprise performance growth rate differentiation is larger, the market in the second quarter or bottom?

2022-08-06 0 By

Blue word attention, do not get lost ~ a series of stable real estate policies began to show effect, in March, the residential transaction area of key cities increased by nearly 50%, especially in late March, the transaction area of key cities picked up significantly.However, from a year-on-year point of view, in March key cities residential transaction area is still down nearly 50 percent.In the first quarter as a whole, the performance scale of the top 100 housing enterprises significantly reduced 47% year on year, and the growth rate of the housing enterprises in each camp is greatly differentiated.Industry insiders believe that, under the comprehensive influence of various factors, such as the repeated epidemic, the pace of real estate enterprises to push goods, and the lack of consumer purchasing power, the sales performance of real estate enterprises in the first quarter is not good, and the market as a whole is still depressed.It is expected that under the influence of more supportive policies, market transactions in the second quarter will stabilize or bottom out, and the year-on-year decline will also narrow.In late March, the transaction of commercial housing in key cities picked up significantly under the support of a series of favorable policies.Data from Crerick Research Center show that from the weekly data, the 10th to 12th week, 30 key monitoring cities commodity housing transactions continued to decline, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Nanjing and other transactions declined for three consecutive weeks.The 13th week, the key city transaction picked up significantly, has basically restored to the weekly transaction scale at the beginning of the month, Shenzhen, Qingdao and other transactions volume growth.In March as a whole, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 key monitoring cities increased by 48% on a month-on-month basis. Among them, the transaction volume in first-tier cities increased by 7% on a month-on-month basis, and the transaction volume in 26 second and third-tier cities increased by 56% on a month-on-month basis.However, from a year-on-year point of view, 30 key monitoring cities commercial residential transaction area fell to 47%, the market as a whole is still depressed.Among them, first-tier city market turnover year-on-year decline expanded to 49%.Due to repeated epidemic prevention and control, the real estate market in Shanghai and Shenzhen is in a state of “semi-shutdown”, and the year-on-year decline in transaction volume has significantly expanded.Beijing, Guangzhou also less than expected, in March, the middle of the market performance is weak, the average rate of new opening projects down to 30%.With the loosening of mortgage loans for residents, most banks reduce mortgage interest rates and shorten the lending cycle, the market in Beijing and Guangzhou began to warm up in the latter part of last year, but the overall market heat is far from the same period last year.26 second – and third-tier city markets to show weakness, turnover year-on-year decline expanded to 46%.Limited by the high base of the same period last year, superimposed on the domestic epidemic rebound, more than 60% of the second and third tier cities transaction halved year-on-year, changchun, Changzhou and other year-on-year decline of more than 70%.Some urban markets with better epidemic control bottomed out and stabilized, such as Haikou, where the year-on-year decline in transaction narrowed to 3%.For example, the volume of transactions in Xi ‘an increased by 32% year on year, and the average deactivation rate of new opening projects reached 50%. There were projects in hot areas such as high-tech and port Area with “sunshine”.The market of pressure cities did rebound after the implementation of the rescue policy, but it lasted for a short time. The transformation of strength and weakness of the cities reflected from side to side largely depends on the relationship between market supply and demand.Typical example is Zhengzhou, the transaction picked up significantly in the first half of the month, but because the housing market supply far exceeds demand, the transaction fell again in the second half of the month, and the average removal rate of new opening projects was as low as 20%.The performance of real estate enterprises has fallen sharply, and the growth rate of each camp is greatly differentiated from the sales performance of real estate enterprises in the first quarter, which is not ideal as a whole.Data from Crerick Research Center showed that in March, TOP100 real estate enterprises realized sales volume of 511.54 billion yuan in a single month, up 27.4% from the previous month, which was significantly lower than the same period in previous years.Year-on-year, the decline reached 52.7 percent, 5.5 percentage points higher than the decline in February;Compared with January, the sales volume decreased by 2.6 percent.In terms of cumulative performance, the overall performance scale of the top 100 real estate companies from January to March decreased by 47% year on year, also lower than the level of the same period in 2020, and the first quarter started miserably.Middle Finger Research Institute data also showed that from January to March, the average sales of TOP100 real estate enterprises was 16.26 billion yuan, down 47.2% year on year;Among them, there are 2 real estate companies with sales of over 100 billion yuan, 3 less than the same period last year;More than 10 billion real estate enterprises 46, 30 fewer than the same period last year.The average equity sales volume of the TOP100 real estate companies was 11.95 billion yuan, and the average equity sales area was 851,000 square meters, down 47.6% and 48.1% year-on-year respectively.From January to March, the growth rate of sales in different camps was greatly differentiated, with the first and third camps increasing year-on-year.According to statistics from the Middle Finger Institute, two companies in the camp of more than 100 billion yuan saw their average sales decline by 22.1% year on year.The first camp (50 billion to 100 billion) has two companies, with average sales growth of 19.4% year on year, the fastest growth among the four camps.The second group ($20 billion to $50 billion) consists of 18 companies with average sales growth of -0.7%.There are 24 companies in the third group (10-20 billion), with an average sales growth rate of 6.2%.There are 35 companies in the fourth camp, and the average growth rate of sales is -22.3%.Among them, Country Garden’s sales were 132.89 billion yuan, Vanke’s 104.5 billion yuan, Poly Development’s 88.83 billion yuan and Sunac’s 72.4 billion yuan.In the second quarter, the market transaction or bottom stabilization for most of the scale of real estate enterprises sales performance is not good, and The Research center believes that, on the one hand, is affected by the market downturn, the lack of confidence in the industry, on the other hand, the enterprise’s own push and marketing enthusiasm is generally not high.Ehan think tank also believes that there are four main reasons: first, the repeated epidemic, pushing goods, viewing houses are affected.Second, the existence of differences in urban differentiation, demand release has no basis.Third, it is difficult to realize effective demand under the strict constraints of policies.Fourth, negative income and expectations, insufficient purchasing power.In addition, the pace of the housing enterprise push goods, each node push goods volume arrangement, the volume of construction progress are the key factors affecting enterprise sales.Recently, the central and local governments have continuously sent signals of stabilizing the real estate market.The Financial Commission of The State Council stressed the need to timely study and put forward effective risk prevention and mitigation solutions.Subsequently, the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the Central bank, the Securities Regulatory Commission and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange have deployed the implementation of the work, the Ministry of Finance also said that there is no conditions to expand the real estate tax reform pilot cities within this year.Crerick Research Center is expected that real estate financial policies will moderate the pace and intensity of deleveraging.First of all, the overall financing environment of real estate enterprises is expected to improve significantly, and state-owned enterprises, central enterprises and high-quality private enterprises may benefit more.Secondly, residential mortgage loans may continue to be deregulated, to ensure that the demand for housing improvements and new residents purchase homes is met, and to give new residents a certain degree of credit policy support.However, Crerui Research Center believes that first-tier city regulation policies will still be closely implemented, especially the purchase restriction policy is more difficult to withdraw, but some of the contraction policies will be moderately unbound, such as Shenzhen or will increase the second-hand housing reference price.Recently, some second-tier cities “four restrictions” control signs of loosening.For example, Zhengzhou, Fuzhou partial relaxation of purchase restrictions, Zhengzhou partial relaxation of loan restrictions, Harbin full cancellation of sales restrictions.It is expected that second-tier and third-tier cities will follow the example of partial relaxation or even complete cancellation of the “four Restrictions” policy, and pressure cities will give stimulus at the demand side, such as accelerated redevelopment, redevelopment, and increase the proportion of monetary resettlement;Fiscal and tax stimulus to support the market, home purchase subsidies, tax cuts and exemptions.Looking to the future, Cree research center believes that the bottom of the market or will come in the second quarter, when the transaction or will build a bottom to stabilize, year-on-year decline will also be narrowed.However, based on the economic fundamentals of the city, the current situation of the real estate market, the potential purchase demand and the purchasing power of residents and other factors, the market of various cities may intensify differentiation. First, the market of the first and second tier cities will probably stabilize in April and May.Among them, market demand and purchasing power in first-tier cities are the strongest, and the real estate market may be the first to stabilize.The market demand in second-tier cities is relatively abundant, but the purchasing power of residents is overdrawn, and the real estate market may be stabilized by rotation.Second, the third – and fourth-tier cities need a long period of time to stabilize the market.Among them, the real estate market in strong third-tier cities may stabilize in the second half of the year or even at the end of the year, while the real estate market in weak third and fourth-tier cities may continue to consolidate.Copyright Notice All the original content of securities Times platform, without written authorization, any units and individuals shall not be reproduced.We reserve the right to investigate the relevant subject of legal responsibility.For reprinting and cooperation, please contact SecuritiesTimes assistant on wechat ID: SecuritiesTimes illegal and bad information report tel: 0755-83514034 email:bwb@stcn.comEND click keyword to view the hidden series 丨 shares in-depth reporting things will column 丨 investment little red book 丨 e company 丨 times saloon 丨 shady survey 丨 ten big star private interviews 丨 spring go grassroots 丨 a-share wing hui 丨 200 billion shipping giant plate harden, maotai once rose by more than 4% 丨 “non-professional investors do not suggest to sell at this time!”Capital management big guy Dong Chengfei latest voice! 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